Starfleet Commander Forum

Starfleet Commander => Conquest Universe => Topic started by: wesnalk on May 13, 2013, 02:42:16 PM

Title: moon destruction?
Post by: wesnalk on May 13, 2013, 02:42:16 PM
is it even worth trying to kill moons with zeus? seems pretty risky to me, anyone played nova and can shed some light on the matter?
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: CB on May 13, 2013, 02:59:33 PM
I did it on Nova to a person who parked a launch point in my SS. I told him that I was going to be hitting him a lot, and if I gave him a moon, I would take it away too... so, I did.

I don't recommend it for a couple reasons. 1, there is a fairly good chance your fleet that you attack with won't be coming home (mine did). 2, it is an A-hole maneuver. I would never launch on a built up moon. that would be rude beyond reality. we are all here to have fun, fleets are easy to rebuild... moon... quite a pain.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Vastet on May 13, 2013, 05:09:00 PM
I don't like the mechanic myself and would never use it casually even if the risk was low. Even a level 3 base costs a day or more to build. Or actual money, which is about equally nasty in my view.
I don't think I've ever disliked someone so much I'd try to blow their moon up.
Maybe I would blow up an inactive players moon just for the experience, but never an active players moon. Too much of a dick move.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: DolphinDiver on May 13, 2013, 05:12:29 PM
Someone tried to kill my moon at tourney1 and lost his entire fleet doing so. Moon successfully defeated. The point is that Zeus need that long that it is possible to arrange GD even from other galaxies.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Zarchne on May 14, 2013, 12:26:33 AM
I expect that from BFG's standpoint allowing moon destruction makes a lot of sense.  Moon destruction can be accomplished overnight when no one is watching, which means that players need to either behave themselves reasonably well to other players, or pay BFG for neutrality markers.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Gershwyn on May 14, 2013, 05:06:34 AM
Yeah, seems to me that someone would only do it if they REALLY didn't like the person. That being said, overnight seems safest because you may not have to deal with the other person's fleet. I was just wondering about this the other day though. Has anyone actually been successful?
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: CB on May 14, 2013, 06:20:35 AM
When I created the moon on Nova, I immediately sent the fellow a message saying, "As I mentioned when you popped the planet here, if I give you moon, I will be taking it away... launching now." Then, I sent a huge fleet that landed an attack on the moon a few seconds before my Zeus fleet.

60 Zeus = no moon... 190% (or some bs like that) chance of moon destruction. Something like 30% chance fleet goes BOOM! :D

Keep in mind, I may have destroyed the moon, but I told him well in advance that if I gave it, I was taking it back... and I even gave him the courtesy of an email immediately so he wouldn't waste resources or real $ to try to build it up.

CB
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Vastet on May 14, 2013, 11:42:47 AM
I think your case is a little different. You laid everything out pretty simply far in advance and then blew it up as soon as it was created. Still a bit painful.. but no time, resources, or money invested makes it far less cruel. And the target continued to operate in the system despite your clear intentions, so he basically accepted the scenario as you laid it out.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Zarchne on May 14, 2013, 03:42:54 PM
I think from a player perspective, the main advantage of moon destructibility is that it resolves the debate over what size moon shot is best.  The expected (average) cost of a moon in other universes is the same whether you use 1% or 20% shots (or anything in between) so the difference is mostly luck.  (Back in the early days of SFCO, when moons were expensive... but I won't go there.)

Now that there is a clear advantage to doing 20% shots, nobody has to think about that anymore.  (It also helps that moons are cheaper not only in relative terms, but even in absolute terms.  Expected cost of a moon is now 15 million in Conquest, down from 35 million in other universes.)
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Gershwyn on May 16, 2013, 06:42:32 AM
And it gives you a way to get someone back if you really REALLY dislike them... And have billions of spare resources. I think with the faster speeds in conquest (and the NPCs/territory debris fields) it might be a more common thing for people to try. Two hours for a Zeus at Warp 8 isn't terrible when you're attacking an undefended moon (or maybe I'm wrong). Albeit, anyone would think twice about a gated moon but I imagine ideally you'd attack when you think someone is offline.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Boris Alden on May 21, 2013, 09:25:18 PM
The thing is it's a tactical decision.  It requires reconnaissance, patience and some balls.

I tried in Nova to test the theory.  It was an unexpected outcome I had no ships after wards they all blew up along with the Zeus the moon was unscathed.

However I think you need a lot of Zeus and in time here who is really going to care flinging 1k Zeus or more at a moon.;
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Vastet on May 21, 2013, 09:44:31 PM
Do you get dsp for surviving a moon buster fleet or successfully blasting a moon? This mechanic didn't exist when I was last playing and I haven't seen mention one way or the other.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Zarchne on May 22, 2013, 12:51:24 AM
No DSP is awarded for the moon destruction itself, although if there is a fleet at the moon, the battle beforehand would result in DSP for destroying that defending fleet.

DSP is awarded to the defender if the "fleet of Zeus" is destroyed in the attempt, which is independent of whether the moon is destroyed.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Vastet on May 22, 2013, 01:12:04 AM
Thanks. :)
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Pantin on May 22, 2013, 02:38:18 AM
Quote
I don't like the mechanic myself and would never use it casually even if the risk was low. Even a level 3 base costs a day or more to build. Or actual money, which is about equally nasty in my view.
I don't think I've ever disliked someone so much I'd try to blow their moon up.

+1 to all of that. That mechanic is not fun in any way.

Quote
The thing is it's a tactical decision.  It requires reconnaissance, patience and some balls.

but mostly douchiness

Quote
I tried in Nova to test the theory.  It was an unexpected outcome I had no ships after wards they all blew up along with the Zeus the moon was unscathed.
It was unexpected because you didn't understand the mechanic correctly at the moment you tried it... The chance % of having your fleet destroyed is the whole fleet, not the zeus alone.

Quote
I expect that from BFG's standpoint allowing moon destruction makes a lot of sense.  Moon destruction can be accomplished overnight when no one is watching, which means that players need to either behave themselves reasonably well to other players, or pay BFG for neutrality markers.

I have to say I disagree with the "behave reasonably well to others" jsut because some of the player base don't need a reason to turn troll. I've had a dude nuke me down just because I probed him like I probe everyone else.For those players, in an uni with a LOT of res moon D can be like nuking, except on steroids. Oh and you lose weeks or months of building up. Enjoy.

The only time I've seen moon D in action was between two players that were getting tired of the uni, disliked each other and went at each other that way. One is long term P and is effectively out of it and the other is pretty much the same. It doesnt realyl bring any level of added enjoyment to the game, at least not that I can see.

I agree with the rest of your analysis about P moding being the only effective method, especially if you have to go on vacation.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Monkey D. Luffy on May 22, 2013, 03:36:21 AM
If you want to know about moon destruction, go here:

http://wiki.playstarfleet.com/index.php/Moon

It explains it quite thoroughly.

In the end,... I'd say that if you really want to destroy a moon... wait until you know he's offline, launch from your moon at his, and send the maximum number of fleet that you can, spaced out as 1 zeus at a time, a few (20 to 30) seconds apart. Some of your zeus will return, and you'll lose some - but otherwise, it's like a moon shot - each "hit" gives a chance of destroying the moon.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Vastet on May 22, 2013, 03:39:30 AM
Yeah it's a good article... that said nothing about dsp. :P
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: wesnalk on May 22, 2013, 04:24:45 AM
i read the article, thats how i became curious :)
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Gershwyn on May 22, 2013, 06:18:11 AM
What I'm most curious about is if the expected number of attempts is accurate.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Zarchne on May 22, 2013, 02:58:55 PM
What I'm most curious about is if the expected number of attempts is accurate.

Accurate, yes; precise, no.  “It can only be said that the actual number of attempts required will usually be between 1 and twice the expected value listed in this column.”  The word “expected” there is used throughout that section (which I wrote) in the technical sense of “mean of the probability distribution"; a more common word would be “average”.  It is exactly the same as saying that the expected number of 20% moon shots to get a moon is 5, or that the expected number of Gaias required to get a planet over 240 fields is 11.05.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Vastet on May 22, 2013, 04:29:03 PM
Probability is such a pain in the ass.

5 20% moonshots in no way equals out to anything like 100%. I have no intention of working the math out right now (I just woke up sue me :) ), but I'd estimate that 5 attempts at 20% gives you about a 30-40% chance of success overall, with an average of 20%.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Gershwyn on May 23, 2013, 05:17:42 AM
And when you don't like someone a LOT:

In the attack from Gershwyn's Revenge ‎‎[X:XXX:Xm] on Bare Naked Moon ‎‎[X:XXX:Xm]:

There was no battle because the defender had no ships or defenses.

The attacking side acquired 0 resources.

** (DEFENDER) lost 0 RSP and gained 0 DSP. (more)
GraySong (ATTACKER) lost 0 RSP and gained 0 DSP. (more)

2,500,000 ore and 2,000,000 crystal are now floating at this location.

After battle your Zeus count was 1.
There was a 21.49% chance of destroying the moon and it succeeded.

There was a 39.26% chance of losing the attacking fleet, and the fleet was saved.



In Original Universe, this guy drove me from the game with the assistance of his alliance. Now in Conquest I found a small satisfaction in relieving him of his moon.

He took a Zeus with the moon. I sent six attacks of single Zeus and the first was a bust.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: JohnJupp on May 23, 2013, 06:30:30 AM
and so you did.

Guess what I will be doing now lol.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Jub-Jub on May 23, 2013, 09:36:04 AM
I've destroyed some moons, PM if you're curious. 

What I think is more important is that we can buy a lunar architect, but not a lunar demolition expert, what's up with that?!?!
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Zarchne on May 23, 2013, 10:29:26 PM
Probability is such a pain in the ass.

5 20% moonshots in no way equals out to anything like 100%. I have no intention of working the math out right now (I just woke up sue me :) ), but I'd estimate that 5 attempts at 20% gives you about a 30-40% chance of success overall, with an average of 20%.

Oh, man, I've been over this so many times... Just, do the math and get back to me.

The question is not, what is the probability of getting one (or more) moons in 5 20% tries.  The question is either, what is the expected number of moons in five 20% tries, or what is the expected number of 20% tries to get one moon.  Expected number, not certainty.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Vastet on May 24, 2013, 02:47:01 AM
You must have gone through it a lot because you don't get it. You cannot expect a moon in 5 20% shots because they don't add up. You have a 20% average, even if you try a billion times. The probability is always 20%. It rises fractionally with each successive attempt only when making successive attempts, and only fractionally.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: CB on May 24, 2013, 02:57:50 AM
Or, you can just send in 40 Zeus and the moon is guaranteed GONE! :D
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Zarchne on May 24, 2013, 05:25:03 AM
You cannot expect a moon in 5 20% shots

The word “expected” there is used throughout that section (which I wrote) in the technical sense of “mean of the probability distribution"

Read up on expected value (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value) and try again.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Zarchne on May 24, 2013, 06:12:59 AM
And the geometric distribution (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution) is/are the relevant one(s).
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Vastet on May 24, 2013, 05:45:42 PM
Read up on probability and try again.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Zarchne on May 25, 2013, 02:37:15 AM
Right, so, anyway, the values listed in the table "Expected Cost of Moon Destruction" make use of the fact that the mean (expected value) of the geometric distribution for probability p is 1/p.  From the same math it immediately follows that the "expected" number of 20% moonshots per moon is 5.0 (with variance 20.0 which leads to a standard deviation of 4.47).  If you are unable to believe the latter (a more sophisticated critique might be that the variance is so large as to make the expected value worthless), then you would be logically consistent to ignore the table as well.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Vastet on May 25, 2013, 03:15:20 AM
Probability of success after 5 tries @ 20% each =
.2 + 2. + .2 + .2 + 2. - (.8 * .8 * .8 * .8 * .8) = 1.0 - .33 = .67
0.67 = 67%

67% = <1

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem

Back to math class for you.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Azureflames on May 25, 2013, 03:31:30 AM
Probability of success after 5 tries @ 20% each =
.2 + 2. + .2 + .2 + 2. - (.8 * .8 * .8 * .8 * .8) = 1.0 - .33 = .67
0.67 = 67%

67% = <1

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem

Back to math class for you.

I'm not sure what you are arguing. No one said 5 20% moonshots = 100%.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Vastet on May 25, 2013, 03:34:12 AM
Where exactly did I say someone said that hmm?
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Azureflames on May 25, 2013, 03:42:18 AM
Where exactly did I say someone said that hmm?

I clearly said I don't know what you're arguing and you're still not explaining it. Zarchne is arguing about expected number of moonshots. Just because you can expect one at 5 attempts does not mean you get it. Expected does not equal 100%.

If 100,000 players all try to get moons using 20% moonshots the average number of attempts to achieve it will be approximately 5. Some will get it in 1 try, some will get it in 10 tries, others will get it in x tries. You can expect to have a moon in 5 attempts. That doesn't mean you will get it.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Vastet on May 25, 2013, 03:52:54 AM
A probability of 0.67 does not result in an average of 1. It results in an average of 0.67. If 100,000 players each try 5 20% moonshots then 67% of them can be expected to be successful.

You also get to go back to math class.

And with that I'm done arguing with the intellectual void to be found here.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Azureflames on May 25, 2013, 04:01:06 AM
A probability of 0.67 does not result in an average of 1. It results in an average of 0.67. If 100,000 players each try 5 20% moonshots then 67% of them can be expected to be successful.

You also get to go back to math class.

And with that I'm done arguing with the intellectual void to be found here.

They aren't all supposed to get moons in 5 attempts. Look up the definition for expected value. You are not arguing for expected value.

Getting a moon is a all or nothing event so the payout is for success is 1 while failure is 0. Therefore, to calculate the expected amount of moons to get in 5 attempts:

(1*.2)+(1*.2)+(1*.2)+(1*.2)+(1*.2) = 1.0 moons.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: WGW on May 25, 2013, 03:00:26 PM
Imho - Moon destruction is a ridiculous waste of resources, fleet slots, and playing time.  Benefits are minimal, easily reversed ... just a nickels worth of thoughts
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: DolphinDiver on May 26, 2013, 01:30:03 PM
in a universe with unlimited resources moon destruction could be an option against boreness...
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Monkey D. Luffy on May 26, 2013, 01:47:47 PM
Imho - Moon destruction is a ridiculous waste of resources, fleet slots, and playing time.  Benefits are minimal, easily reversed ... just a nickels worth of thoughts

Not to give anyone any ideas... But, even though you say this - and it's true in any slow universe... in a fast uni like conquest - or maybe even X2 (if they allowed moon destruction - which I hope that they don't) - Destroying moons is not a waste of time or resources... I played O-game, which this game is based off of, and I can tell you with certainty, in the fast universes like Electra and Pro-Game (4x, and 5x speed universes) None of the top ten players "allowed" other players to have moons within 50 to 60 systems of their planets with moons... I had my moons destroyed dozens of times, before I finally asked why they kept doing it - and I was told that it was so that no one could "phalanx" (their version of an oracle) their fleets.

Just sayin' - there is a strategic reason for doing it.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Zarchne on May 28, 2013, 09:28:50 AM
A probability of 0.67 does not result in an average of 1. It results in an average of 0.67. If 100,000 players each try 5 20% moonshots then 67% of them can be expected to be successful.

Just in case anybody cares, the 67% figure is indeed the number of players who do not experience failure.  32.768% is the number expected to get 0 moons from 5 20% shots; 67.232% receive one or more moons.  So, in addition to the 32.768% who receive 0 moons, 40.96% receive 1 moon for .4096, 20.48% receive 2 moons for .4096, 5.12% receive 3 moons for .1536, 0.64% receive 4 moons for .0256, and 0.032% receive 5 moons for .0016.   0 + .4096 + .4096 + .1536 + .0256 + .0016 = 1.000.  That's really why the expected number of moons from 5 20% shots is 1.

But, of course, that's not really how getting (or destroying?) moons works, you can't do n shots (regardless of how many moons you get) and then quit for good.  You go until you succeed once at the planet.  The expected number of shots required for a given probability is calculated in a different way, with an infinite geometric series.  (Hence, the "geometric distribution.")  The probability of getting a moon on the first 20% shot is 20%, so for the expected value that contributes 0.2.  The probability of getting it on exactly the second shot (from the perspective of the beginning) is 80% * 20% = 16%, multiplied by 2 because this is the second shot for 0.32 more.  The third, 80% * 80% * 20% = .128 * 3 = .384.   Fourth, .83 * .2 * 4 = .4096.  And so forth, on to infinity.  If you sum all those infinite terms, each one n * 0.2 * 0.8(n - 1), you get... 5.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Boop on June 16, 2013, 10:08:24 PM
I know this has been asked and answered but I cannot find it. What happens to a fleet if you are fleetsaving from the moon and it gets destroyed while you are out?
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Vastet on June 16, 2013, 10:26:04 PM
It continues to fleetsave, and when it returns it will return to the planet instead of the moon.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Boop on June 16, 2013, 10:43:26 PM
thank you.
Title: Re: moon destruction?
Post by: Vastet on June 16, 2013, 11:07:50 PM
No problem :)