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Author Topic: can't get a moon  (Read 3145 times)

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Offline Fester

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can't get a moon
« on: April 27, 2010, 07:19:34 PM »
i just got my fleet wiped out and i have tried 4 times to get a moon..... its still NOT working!!!!  unfair advantage... to the majoy players...... i'm glad its not EMPIRE.... but i'll grads WHO!!!! hears the report.... i ask again WHY NO MOON????

The attacking side acquired 515,035 ore, 35,090 crystal, and 771,665 hydrogen.
There now float 8,184,300 ore and 6,657,150 crystal at this location.
There's a 20.0% chance that a moon will form from the debris.
However, no moon formed.

NOW EXPLAIN THIS!!!
« Last Edit: January 01, 1970, 12:00:00 AM by Guest »
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Offline Master

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #1 on: April 27, 2010, 07:22:51 PM »
In original it took me 5 20% planned shots before I got my moon. If you look at the statistics I still was only at about a 67% probability of getting one with 5 tries. This is a statistical math problem and if you are unfamiliar with these types of equations then it doesn't seem to make sense.
« Last Edit: January 01, 1970, 12:00:00 AM by Guest »
poeticmotion: You know what will happen if I oracle-lock you?

Absolutely nothing. I\'ll cuss a few times, mutter "holy crap, I\'m not even going to battlecalc that" and have nightmares about 10000 capitol ships descending upon my homeworld.

Offline tommys profile

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #2 on: April 27, 2010, 07:46:31 PM »
i would like to say im on my 15th atemp. but im going for 3.3% a lower and quicker way of going for a moon. im setting up 3-4 atttacks on my homeworld. im still waiting and i am hopefuly will get one soon. :roll:
« Last Edit: January 01, 1970, 12:00:00 AM by Guest »
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Offline Master

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #3 on: April 27, 2010, 07:54:19 PM »
Quote from: "tommys profile"
i would like to say im on my 15th atemp. but im going for 3.3% a lower and quicker way of going for a moon. im setting up 3-4 atttacks on my homeworld. im still waiting and i am hopefuly will get one soon. :roll:
This way may be cheaper if you get lucky enough but on average you will end up spending even more resources on many small attempts then you will on a few larger ones. It isn't a night and day difference though, but every little bit counts :D
« Last Edit: January 01, 1970, 12:00:00 AM by Guest »
poeticmotion: You know what will happen if I oracle-lock you?

Absolutely nothing. I\'ll cuss a few times, mutter "holy crap, I\'m not even going to battlecalc that" and have nightmares about 10000 capitol ships descending upon my homeworld.

Offline Ziggyny

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #4 on: April 27, 2010, 07:57:26 PM »
That's actually not true. On average you'll spend less by taking very small shots than you will on taking max shots, but only by a small amount. (You may end up 'wasting' some of the 20% shot.)
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Offline Lord Emporer

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2010, 07:59:30 PM »
i am ranked #74 and almost all the moons i see are for players lower ranked than me. i do not have one yet and i have spent 10's of mil trying so go cry somewhere else.
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Offline bryn987

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2010, 08:13:44 PM »
I got my two on 10% tries.  About 10 tries or so as well
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Offline Master

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2010, 08:16:09 PM »
Quote from: "the420penguin"
Quote from: "Ziggyny"
That's actually not true. On average you'll spend less by taking very small shots than you will on taking max shots, but only by a small amount. (You may end up 'wasting' some of the 20% shot.)


i call bullshit =D

where is your  table of odds so i can show you your bad math

10 2% shots is actually 18.29% chance

not a 20%
I was going to say something but I really didn't feel like looking up the odds myself as I don't like to call people out on things if I can't back it up, especially if they are calling me out on me calling them out from memory...
« Last Edit: January 01, 1970, 12:00:00 AM by Guest »
poeticmotion: You know what will happen if I oracle-lock you?

Absolutely nothing. I\'ll cuss a few times, mutter "holy crap, I\'m not even going to battlecalc that" and have nightmares about 10000 capitol ships descending upon my homeworld.

Offline Ziggyny

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #8 on: April 27, 2010, 08:31:38 PM »
True, but you're missing the fact that you can stop after 1 2% shot if you hit. In formula form, the amount you're going to spend on average to get a moon is going to be:

i = 1
SUM (i*x)*(x/100)*(1-x/100)^(i-1)
 INF

Where x is the percentage chance you're shooting for.

Choose whatever values for x that you want and sum to infinity, you're going to get 100 no matter what you pick. You always expect to spend a single 100% moonshot to get a moon, no matter how you break it up.
« Last Edit: January 01, 1970, 12:00:00 AM by Guest »

Offline Ziggyny

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #9 on: April 27, 2010, 08:42:42 PM »
To work out a specific example because I think you're going to need it, with 20% moonshots.

.2 - first try, spent 20 total.
.8*.2 - second try, spent 40 total.
.8*.8*.2 - third try, spent 60 total.
.8*.8*.8*.2 - fourth try, spent 80 total.
.8*.8*.8*.8*.2 - fifth try, spent 100 total.
.8*.8*.8*.8*.8*.2 - sixth try, spent 120 total.
.8*.8*.8*.8*.8*.8*.2 - seventh try, spent 140 total.
.8*.8*.8*.8*.8*.8*.8*.2 - eighth try, spent 160 total.
...

Expected value spent:
.2*20 + .8*.2*40 + .8*.8*.2*60 + .8*.8*.8*.2 + 80 + ...


After 1 try - 20% chance moon - 20 spent
After 2 tries - 20% chance moon - 20 spent. 16% chance moon - 40 spent. 64% no moon - 40 spent
EV              - 36% chance moon - 36 spent
After 3 tries - 20% moon - 20 spent. 16% moon - 40 spent. 12.8% moon - 60 spent. 51.2% no moon - 60 spent.
EV              - 48.8% chance moon - 48.8 spent

No matter how many 20% moonshots you take, your overall expected amount spent to get a moon is equal to your current odds of having hit a moon. The same will pan out no matter what your chunk is sized. In terms of getting a moon it doesn't matter what size shots you take.

What does matter, however, is losses you may take on your end to kill off the incoming moonshots. These are guaranteed to be lower if you break up the incoming attacks.
« Last Edit: January 01, 1970, 12:00:00 AM by Guest »

Offline Ziggyny

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #10 on: April 27, 2010, 08:46:02 PM »
Quote from: "the420penguin"
100% isnt a guarantee xD

you need 35 20% shots to get to 96.96% chance

And I never said it was. I'm talking about how much you can EXPECT to spend at any given time to get a moon. That value is equivalent to a 100% moonshot. Or 5 20%s. Or 100 1%s.

THIS DOES NOT GUARANTEE YOU A MOON. SOME PEOPLE WILL GET IT ON THEIR FIRST 1% AND SOME PEOPLE WILL BALANCE THAT OUT BY CONTINUALLY MISSING. THESE ARE EXPECTED VALUES AND NOT GUARANTEES.

And your math is wrong. After 35 20% moon shots you have a 99.9594% chance of having hit a moon. (1-.2)^35=.000406
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Offline Master

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #11 on: April 27, 2010, 08:51:24 PM »
If you know how to play without defenses then you don't take any losses form Artemis shots as you can wipe out 2500 Artemis with 0 losses quite easily if you have any kind of a decent fleet.
« Last Edit: January 01, 1970, 12:00:00 AM by Guest »
poeticmotion: You know what will happen if I oracle-lock you?

Absolutely nothing. I\'ll cuss a few times, mutter "holy crap, I\'m not even going to battlecalc that" and have nightmares about 10000 capitol ships descending upon my homeworld.

Offline Ziggyny

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #12 on: April 27, 2010, 08:55:45 PM »
The number of people in the game who can take 2500 artemii without losses is less than the number of people in the game that want moons. It cannot hurt to break up moonshots, it can only help (and will mostly be irrelevant). Your claim earlier was that it costs more in the long run if you break them up. I'd like to see your logic showing that to be true since as far as I can tell you were just wrong.
« Last Edit: January 01, 1970, 12:00:00 AM by Guest »

Offline Master

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #13 on: April 27, 2010, 09:05:22 PM »
How it works is that 20% shots start out with a higher efficiency rate ie it would take more than 2500 Artemis to get a 20% chance for a moon if they are broken up into smaller groups.

However 1% shots have less loss of efficiency with each shot allowing them to catch up with the odds of 20% shots later on.

Since you are more likely to acquire a moon before you have spent 50 million in ships (100% shot split up) your odds are in your favor to do the larger shots since they are more efficient for that first 50 million worth of ships.
« Last Edit: January 01, 1970, 12:00:00 AM by Guest »
poeticmotion: You know what will happen if I oracle-lock you?

Absolutely nothing. I\'ll cuss a few times, mutter "holy crap, I\'m not even going to battlecalc that" and have nightmares about 10000 capitol ships descending upon my homeworld.

Offline poeticmotion

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #14 on: April 27, 2010, 09:12:22 PM »
Quote from: "the420penguin"
just posi.. you shouldnt moon without a group of posis to do it


Or Zeus :D Easy to take the shot without loss if you have Zeus.
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