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July 16, 2019, 07:06:46 PM

Author Topic: can't get a moon  (Read 2962 times)

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Offline Fester

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #15 on: April 27, 2010, 09:34:53 PM »
the moon's i've given.....it was nothing....of a battle....now i had this major battle that Satern would be the size of the debree field...still no moon:(    
if it's a crap shoot.....i just don't get it!

thanks for all your imputs!!! i read them all....
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Offline LHDR

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #16 on: April 27, 2010, 09:47:13 PM »
Quote from: "Fester"
i just got my fleet wiped out and i have tried 4 times to get a moon..... its still NOT working!!!!  unfair advantage... to the majoy players...... i'm glad its not EMPIRE.... but i'll grads WHO!!!! hears the report.... i ask again WHY NO MOON????

My first attempt was a 20% shot. I did not get a moon.

Last night I was unavoidably delayed, did not fleet save. Was attacked, and got a moon on a 3% chance.  :D

It is all luck of the draw.
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Offline Pheanor

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #17 on: April 27, 2010, 10:16:13 PM »
First moon was after 7 20% attempts, Second moon on 2nd 20% attempt

after 15 20% shots still no third moon.

Will continue until I get the moons I want, and feel I need.
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Offline Bleys

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #18 on: April 27, 2010, 11:36:47 PM »
OG has horror stories of guys going 0-30 on 20% shots. It can happen. In fact, given as many people that there are trying to get moons, its LIKELY one or more of them will have horribly bad "luck". Just sucks when it lands on you.

I got my only moon in SFX on the 3rd 250-arty shot. Since then I have burned over 14K arties trying to get a 2nd.

I really wish BFG had made a similar decision that they did with the Zeus, and made it more casual-friendly to get them from OG. In OG, getting the tech to make Zeus's is tricky and not easy. It takes no resources, and researches instantly, but takes 300K energy. That means building 5-10K Sats, which, as we all know, can be crashed if spotted.

I think they could have done something similar with moons. Heck, make it the 300K energy thing, each planet, you have to have 300K energy, and BOOM, you get a moon. Expensive, risky, but 100% if you pull it off.

If there is one thing I really dont like in eiither version though, its the moon thing. Very poor game mechanic IMHO. But its what we have.
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Offline Gladiator

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #19 on: April 28, 2010, 03:07:16 AM »
I got really lucky and got one first try 7.1 % chance.   :D
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Offline Converge

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #20 on: April 28, 2010, 03:15:09 AM »
My first moon was 2x10%, 2x20%, and then finally got it with a 8.1% in which I gave the SW member who sent the artys at me a moon as well from 8.1% in the exchange.

My second moon was something like 5 or 6x20%
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Offline Bleys

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #21 on: April 28, 2010, 04:24:48 AM »
I have 10 moons on my OG account, took me about 50 20% tries.

But during those 50, I had an 0-14 run, and a 2 of 3 in one day, so streaks are natural.

Hang in there, its annoying but you will get moons.
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Offline kriss515

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #22 on: April 28, 2010, 01:23:23 PM »
i have busted close to 100 moonshots.
i got one i sfco when i went dip to stop playing.
boom 1.9% chance.
so far i've given one in sfcx  2.4% chance and killed thousands of ships for moonshots.
but alas no moon for me in sfcx.
the real truth about moonshots is simple.....you never have more than a 20% chance.
i will explain why...
the system doesn't remember how many times you have tried.
so saying after 5 20% chances your at 80% your crazy 20% and realisticly 1% on any moonshot.
for you are only shooting for the magic number in your hand.
most moons are handed out for less than 4%
i know several players like myself who have made a sick group of moonshotters.
we attack each other with our art fleets hoping for a moon.
funny even alliances that don't like you will give you moonshots!
if they can get one back!!
but i think the math is wrong.
if it doesn't remember there is no accumulation of % for the shot.
that simple i am proof i do believe i have had almost 100 shots of different amounts and no moon.
sometimes doing 8-9 a day.
someone needs a chalkboard not a google calculator
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Offline Ziggyny

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #23 on: April 28, 2010, 06:30:38 PM »
Quote from: "Master"
How it works is that 20% shots start out with a higher efficiency rate ie it would take more than 2500 Artemis to get a 20% chance for a moon if they are broken up into smaller groups.

However 1% shots have less loss of efficiency with each shot allowing them to catch up with the odds of 20% shots later on.

Since you are more likely to acquire a moon before you have spent 50 million in ships (100% shot split up) your odds are in your favor to do the larger shots since they are more efficient for that first 50 million worth of ships.

This isn't true! 1% shots are only 'less efficient' if you consider these two things to be true:

- Extra ships are worthless
- You only want exactly 1 more moon

To try to explain this, consider having precisely 2500 arties. How should you spend them to have the best chance at a moon?

1 20% shot - 20% moon, 80% no moon
2 10% shots - 10% moon + 1250 arties, 9% moon, 81% no moon

Now you can look at that and say '20% > 19%, you must be better off with the 20% shot over the 10% shot' but that's only true if you assign no value at all to those extra 1250 arties. Sending them off to join your fleet has value. So does sending them off as a moonshot on another planet. Doing that will get you a second moon 1% of the time, so you can really look at the result matrix as being:

1 20% shot - 20% moon, 80% no moon
2 10% shots - 1% 2 moons, 18% moon, 81% no moon

Expected value wise you end up with the exact same thing with either split. 20% of a moon.

Take a full 12500 arties (100% moonshot, if such a thing could happen). What are the possible outcomes?

5 20% shots - .032% 5 moons, .64% 4 moons, 5.12% 3 moons, 20.48% 2 moons, 40.96% 1 moon, 32.768% 0 moons
10 10% shots - negligible chance at 10-6 moons, .1488% 5 moons, 1.1116% 4 moons, 5.7396% 3 moons, 19.371% 2 moons, 38.742% 1 moon, 34.8678% 0 moons

In both cases your expected value is 1 moon. By splitting them up into smaller chunks you're more likely to get many moons and more likely to get no moons at all. The full 20% shots make you more likely to get 1 or 2 moons with every other outcome less likely. But in the long run, assuming you can find value in either extra ships or in extra moons then it does not matter how you split up your shots. In terms of overall moon acquisition it is exactly the same.

Now, if you only want exactly 1 moon, and if you have no use for extra ships, then you should use full 20% shots. Beyond that it doesn't matter and you should use whatever you want.
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Offline Bleys

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #24 on: April 28, 2010, 07:43:15 PM »
Currently, since there is no moon size or moon destruction, you are right.

In the other game, however, there absolutely is moon destruction, and its tied to moon size, which is a direct relationship to the size of the moonshot. So 1-5% moons are small and easy to destroy, while 20% moons are larger and much more difficult.

I hope if BFG puts MD in the game, they dont go back and retroactively give the current moons "sizes" and make smaller one easier to destroy or something. That would be another pretty unfair mechanic.
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Offline Fester

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #25 on: April 28, 2010, 08:51:11 PM »
got attacked again today...still no moon...its crazy!
battle report
The attacking side acquired 319,309 ore, 23,741 crystal, and 296,297 hydrogen.
There now float 357,900 ore and 309,750 crystal at this location.
There's a 4.5% chance that a moon will form from the debris.
However, no moon formed.
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Offline Ziggyny

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #26 on: April 28, 2010, 08:53:17 PM »
Yes, for sure. If moon size ever becomes a factor and is based on debris field size then you absolutely want to go as big as possible.
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Offline Bodge

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #27 on: April 28, 2010, 11:03:42 PM »
I have 2 moons now.

Moon 1 Thanks to empire.

Moon 2 Thanks to Supreme Commander (Thanks Buddy)

Anyone want to give me another in G5  8-)
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Offline Bodge

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #28 on: April 29, 2010, 12:11:14 AM »
Quote from: "the420penguin"
bodge id trade 420 artis  but youd have to let yours land first.. i wont leave a stupid gap either =O

lol anytime
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Offline Pheanor

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Re: can't get a moon
« Reply #29 on: April 29, 2010, 08:36:25 AM »
16 no moon
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